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7.2.04

Bush's Weapon Of Kerry Destruction

There's been some speculation about whether President Bush will come out strongly in favor of the Federal Marriage Amendment, now that the Massaschusetts SJC has ruled that full-fledged gay marriage is the only acceptable choice. I think that, strategically speaking, Bush would be a fool not to campaign hard on the FMA.

In one fell swoop, he would shore up his wavering base of support among social conservatives. The people who were feeling unenthused about a second Bush term because of his big government boondoggles like the Medicare bill, the deficit, and the Mars mission will fall into line once he offers them a big government regulation they like. Indeed, it will not only make them favor Bush, but it will make them get excited about promoting his candidacy. On the other side, I doubt he'll lose many swing voters over it. While swing voters may be uneasy about the drastic measure of amending the Constitution, gay rights isn't a major issue for them. It won't be the last straw that pushes them over into the Democrat's camp. They may even admire Bush for at least being unequivocal about where he stands and not trying to waffle and have it both ways.

The FMA will also reinforce the main slams against John Kerry. Kerry is said to be an elitist New Englander, out of touch with the values of the real Americans in the south and west. This is consonant with the charge that same-sex marriage is being foisted upon us by elitist judges. Being from Massachusetts -- where the offending court is -- won't help him, either. If Kerry takes the morally right stance and comes out in favor of same-sex marriage, he'll dig his own political grave. If he comes out in favor of the FMA, he'll still get attacked as if he opposed it because of his vote against the Defense of Marriage Act, and have to face the additional charges of flip-flopping and pandering. The most likely course is that he'll say "I'm against same-sex marriage, but I'm also against bigotry and against the FMA." This position doesn't distill into a simple sound bite, and will lead to the same sort of accusations that he got hit with for his "nuanced" position on the Iraq war.

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