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30.12.07

Predictions

My electoral prediction record is pretty dismal (though in my defense, I did correctly predict that the Republicans would retain control of Congress -- I just mistakenly thought they'd also have a majority of the seats). But for what it's worth, here are my predictions for the presidential nominations:

The Democrats: In Iowa, Clinton will squeak out a narrow win over Edwards, with Obama a disappointing third (despite winning 100% of the delegates from my mother-in-law's precinct). The media narrative will be all about how Clinton has the skills, Edwards is surging, and Obama's support is hollow. Dodd will drop out here or after NH, as will Biden (who I'm predicting to take fourth). In New Hampshire, Clinton will win easily, with Edwards a very strong third. She'll pick up Nevada, Michigan, and Flordia without breaking a sweat. Super Tuesday will finish off Obama (who won't win any states), Edwards (who will win a few but not enough to feel confident of prevailing in the long run given the money differential and Clinton's broader base of support nationally), and Richardson (who will have done poorly in every contest but stayed in in hopes of positioning himself for a VP or cabinet post). Kucinich will hang on until the very end. I have no idea when reality will dawn on the Gravel campaign.

The Republicans: Iowa is a toss-up between Romney and Huckabee, with McCain third and Paul fourth. Thompson and Hunter will use their poor showing as an excuse to pack it in. McCain will take a strong second in New Hampshire, with Paul and Huckabee tied for third. But despite the pro-McCain media narrative, he'll do poorly in the remaining states leading up to Super Tuesday, which will be basically a Romney-Huckabee battle. Giuliani will pack it in after placing third or fourth in Florida. Super Tuesday will tilt the race decisively toward Romney as well as finishing off McCain. Paul will hang on until the end, but won't launch a third-party candidacy.

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