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From the annals of Laughably Wrong

I've been ridiculously off-base in pretty much every election prediction I've ever made, but that's no reason to stop now. At the risk of jinxing it, I'm going to give the presidential race to Obama, 311-227 in the electoral college and 51-47 in the popular vote. I think he'll win all the Kerry states, plus NV, NM, CO, IA, VA, and OH. In the Senate, I'll say the Dems pick up 7 -- VA, NM, AK, NH, OR, CO, and NC. MN will fall short, and GA will go to a runoff with Chambliss ultimately prevailing. In the house, I'll say a net 20 seat gain, with the Democrats losing PA-11 (my old home district), but Kirkpatrick taking AZ-01 (my new home district) while all the other AZ house races go to the incumbent. Sheriff Joe will be reelected by a low double-digit margin, making him even more insufferable for the next four (?) years (the Pinal County sheriff race I can't make any prediction on). And defying my usual pessimistic instincts, CA will defeat Prop 8 by less than 1%.


Blogger Alon Levy said...

You may have actually been too optimistic here - Prop 8 passed. Oh well.

Can you explain Prop 202 to me? All I've understood from CNN is that it has to do with immigration.

11:36 AM  
Blogger Stentor said...

Yeah, California's voters just taught me never to be optimistic again. Although I underestimated Obama in FL, IN, and probably NC.

Prop 202 adjust the employer sanctions law (the one that punishes businesses for hiring people without work authorization). It was pushed by the business community because they thought the original law was too unforgiving toward employers. I actually didn't vote on it, because I couldn't figure out if it was an improvement or a detriment.

12:29 PM  

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